01 — DEFINE
A position, precisely defined.
Select your venue, asset and side. Enter a liquidation price or leverage, then choose the horizon you want to examine.
Crypto market intelligence
A clearer view
of liquidation risk.
Measure your position against the market’s history. Explore liquidation thresholds, leverage and the moves that matter.
Historical analysis. Transparent assumptions.
Across supported
perpetual markets
perpetual markets
01 / Explore the evidence
A position. A horizon.
A clearer perspective.
Start with Bitcoin. Select a leverage and horizon to see how the historical risk changes.
M3 / 01Liquidation risk, in perspective.
Loading history
Bitcoin
BTC / USDT · Binance
Historical liquidation probability
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10× leverage / 24-hour horizon
Explore how leverage and horizon change the historical frequency of liquidation.
Leverage × horizon
Loading the measured risk surface…
Binance · 1-minute mark price
0%100%
Historical frequency of a price move reaching 1/leverage within the selected horizon, before maintenance margin and fees. Historical outcomes are not a forecast. The color scale is fixed from 0% to 100%.
Read the methodology ↗02 / The methodology
Your position.
The market’s record.
Start with the trade you have in mind. See how often a price move large enough to reach liquidation occurred within your chosen horizon, and examine the events behind the result.
02 — MEASURE
History at minute resolution.
Measure adverse price moves throughout the available history. Review the price source and coverage for each venue and asset.
03 — UNDERSTAND
The evidence behind the risk.
Compare leverage and horizons, examine historical survival levels, and trace liquidation events back to their dates and prices.
03 / Market coverage
Different venues.
A consistent lens.
Explore perpetual markets on six supported venues. Available history and price sources are shown for the asset you select.
| Venue | Historical price source |
|---|---|
| Binance | 1-minute mark price |
| Bybit | 1-minute mark price |
| OKX | 1-minute mark price · history expanding |
| Kraken Futures | 1-minute mark price |
| Hyperliquid | Trade candles + earlier Binance mark price* |
| Bitget | 1-minute mark price · history expanding |
*Hyperliquid uses its own trade candles and, where available, earlier Binance mark-price history. Source coverage varies by asset.
04 / A closer look
Understand
what you’re seeing.
What does the probability represent?
It is the share of historical observations in which the adverse price move reached the specified liquidation distance within the selected horizon. Observations start each minute and can overlap. The result describes the available history; it is not a prediction for your next trade.
Should I enter leverage or a liquidation price?
A liquidation price from your exchange gives the distance for your position. Leverage alone uses an approximate distance of 1/leverage, before maintenance margin and fees. The preview above uses that approximation.
Why does the exchange’s price source matter?
Prices can differ across venues. M3Risk uses the selected venue’s mark-price history where available. Hyperliquid uses trade candles and earlier Binance mark prices where available, so that history is identified separately in the app.
Can I analyse both long and short positions?
Yes. Long positions are assessed against adverse price drops and short positions against adverse price rises, over your chosen horizon. Select your side in the preview or enter a position in the app.
Put your next position
in perspective.
Choose a market. Set your horizon. Explore the evidence.